The data for natural gas and coal were taken from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), while the average U.S. temperatures were taken from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data for coal are presented in thousand short tons which is equal to 2'000 pounds or 907.18474 kilograms, while the data for Natural Gas is presented in million cubic feet which is equal to 28.3168466 million liters. Lastly, the temperatures are presented in fahrenheit.
The data for natural gas is divided into the following categories and series, where the series in bold is used in this analysis.
Looking first at the withdrawals and production numbers, we can clearly see a steady increase since 2006. As we will see later, this is only 1-2 years before the decline in coal production and consumption began in the U.S..
We can also see an unprecedented drop for the same series in February 2021, where the monthly and yearly change were -16.85% and -13.34%, respectively. The drop was primarily caused by a drop in temperature during, where the average temperature had it lowest recording in February since 1989. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47896
We can also see that the imports started to decrease and exported started to increase as the production numbers started to grow. Until 2016, the export was primarily made through pipelines, but the shipping of liquid natural gas has seen a sharp increase since then.
As we mentioned earlier, the decrease in production and consumption of natural gas in february 2021 was mainly driven by extreme weather. This means that the temperature most likely are an important factor when estimating the consumption of natural gas and coal. In order for us to use the temperature as a covariate when making predictions into the future, we also need to have future values for the temperature as well
SARIMAX Results
==================================================================================================
Dep. Variable: U.S. Temperature No. Observations: 1523
Model: SARIMAX([1, 2, 6], 0, 1)x(2, 1, 1, 12) Log Likelihood -3252.709
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 AIC 6521.418
Time: 14:44:13 BIC 6563.982
Sample: 0 HQIC 6537.269
- 1523
Covariance Type: opg
==============================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ar.L1 1.1003 0.022 49.414 0.000 1.057 1.144
ar.L2 -0.0695 0.027 -2.568 0.010 -0.123 -0.016
ar.L6 -0.0318 0.013 -2.431 0.015 -0.057 -0.006
ma.L1 -0.9880 0.007 -135.586 0.000 -1.002 -0.974
ar.S.L12 -0.0085 0.023 -0.372 0.710 -0.053 0.036
ar.S.L24 -0.0914 0.022 -4.172 0.000 -0.134 -0.048
ma.S.L12 -0.9547 0.009 -110.249 0.000 -0.972 -0.938
volatility2 4.2516 0.122 34.880 0.000 4.013 4.491
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q): 0.01 Jarque-Bera (JB): 112.29
Prob(Q): 0.93 Prob(JB): 0.00
Heteroskedasticity (H): 0.80 Skew: -0.03
Prob(H) (two-sided): 0.01 Kurtosis: 4.33
===================================================================================
Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
SARIMAX Results
====================================================================================================
Dep. Variable: U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production YoY No. Observations: 240
Model: ARIMA([1, 2, 3, 12], 0, [1, 2, 3, 12]) Log Likelihood 583.592
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 AIC -1149.184
Time: 16:05:16 BIC -1117.858
Sample: 0 HQIC -1136.562
- 240
Covariance Type: opg
==============================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ar.L1 0.8517 0.081 10.540 0.000 0.693 1.010
ar.L2 -0.0785 0.128 -0.611 0.541 -0.330 0.173
ar.L3 0.2257 0.091 2.471 0.013 0.047 0.405
ar.L12 -0.0211 0.030 -0.709 0.479 -0.080 0.037
ma.L1 -0.0165 0.085 -0.194 0.846 -0.183 0.150
ma.L2 0.1340 0.086 1.552 0.121 -0.035 0.303
ma.L3 -0.0392 0.063 -0.618 0.537 -0.163 0.085
ma.L12 -0.7943 0.057 -13.840 0.000 -0.907 -0.682
volatility2 0.0004 2.85e-05 14.952 0.000 0.000 0.000
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q): 0.01 Jarque-Bera (JB): 261.52
Prob(Q): 0.91 Prob(JB): 0.00
Heteroskedasticity (H): 1.08 Skew: -0.84
Prob(H) (two-sided): 0.75 Kurtosis: 7.83
===================================================================================
Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
SARIMAX Results
========================================================================================================
Dep. Variable: U.S. Natural Gas Imports YoY No. Observations: 240
Model: ARIMA([1, 2, 3, 4, 12], 0, [1, 2, 3, 4, 12]) Log Likelihood 354.283
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 AIC -686.566
Time: 16:06:06 BIC -648.278
Sample: 0 HQIC -671.139
- 240
Covariance Type: opg
==============================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ar.L1 0.5922 0.086 6.850 0.000 0.423 0.762
ar.L2 0.1291 0.101 1.283 0.199 -0.068 0.326
ar.L3 0.0730 0.104 0.704 0.481 -0.130 0.276
ar.L4 0.0646 0.092 0.700 0.484 -0.116 0.245
ar.L12 0.0884 0.053 1.675 0.094 -0.015 0.192
ma.L1 0.0602 0.065 0.933 0.351 -0.066 0.187
ma.L2 0.0216 0.060 0.363 0.717 -0.095 0.138
ma.L3 -0.0362 0.062 -0.587 0.557 -0.157 0.085
ma.L4 -0.0121 0.062 -0.194 0.846 -0.135 0.110
ma.L12 -0.8615 0.060 -14.317 0.000 -0.979 -0.744
volatility2 0.0028 0.000 10.314 0.000 0.002 0.003
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q): 0.15 Jarque-Bera (JB): 0.00
Prob(Q): 0.70 Prob(JB): 1.00
Heteroskedasticity (H): 1.41 Skew: 0.00
Prob(H) (two-sided): 0.12 Kurtosis: 3.01
===================================================================================
Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
SARIMAX Results
========================================================================================================
Dep. Variable: U.S. Natural Gas Exports YoY No. Observations: 240
Model: ARIMA([1, 2, 3, 4, 12], 0, [1, 2, 3, 4, 12]) Log Likelihood 144.511
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 AIC -267.022
Time: 16:06:07 BIC -228.735
Sample: 0 HQIC -251.595
- 240
Covariance Type: opg
==============================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ar.L1 0.7681 0.093 8.234 0.000 0.585 0.951
ar.L2 0.1136 0.117 0.972 0.331 -0.115 0.343
ar.L3 -0.1423 0.132 -1.077 0.281 -0.401 0.117
ar.L4 0.1692 0.088 1.917 0.055 -0.004 0.342
ar.L12 0.0773 0.044 1.758 0.079 -0.009 0.163
ma.L1 -0.0157 0.079 -0.199 0.842 -0.170 0.139
ma.L2 0.0501 0.092 0.545 0.586 -0.130 0.230
ma.L3 0.0174 0.089 0.195 0.846 -0.158 0.193
ma.L4 -0.0050 0.062 -0.082 0.935 -0.126 0.116
ma.L12 -0.7009 0.062 -11.293 0.000 -0.823 -0.579
volatility2 0.0170 0.001 11.485 0.000 0.014 0.020
===================================================================================
Ljung-Box (L1) (Q): 0.01 Jarque-Bera (JB): 3.82
Prob(Q): 0.93 Prob(JB): 0.15
Heteroskedasticity (H): 0.33 Skew: -0.05
Prob(H) (two-sided): 0.00 Kurtosis: 3.61
===================================================================================
Warnings:
[1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients (complex-step).
Our final goal is to estimate the effect that higher prices of natural gas has on the consumption of coal. In order to estimate this, we first need to estimate the effect change in price has on the consumption of natural gas.
| U.S. Natural Gas Deliveries to Electric Power Consumers | |
|---|---|
| Date | |
| 2010-12-15 | 564274.0 |
| 2011-01-15 | 539792.0 |
| 2011-02-15 | 483686.0 |
| 2011-03-15 | 481926.0 |
| 2011-04-15 | 521453.0 |
| 2011-05-15 | 571998.0 |
| 2011-06-15 | 699414.0 |
| 2011-07-15 | 938575.0 |
| 2011-08-15 | 921449.0 |
| 2011-09-15 | 684198.0 |
| 2011-10-15 | 574932.0 |
| 2011-11-15 | 542546.0 |
| 2011-12-15 | 613894.0 |
| 2012-01-15 | 648823.0 |
| 2012-02-15 | 644530.0 |
| 2012-03-15 | 674099.0 |
| 2012-04-15 | 714338.0 |
| 2012-05-15 | 812467.0 |
| 2012-06-15 | 879881.0 |
| 2012-07-15 | 1081688.0 |
| 2012-08-15 | 1003938.0 |
| 2012-09-15 | 802588.0 |
| 2012-10-15 | 669195.0 |
| 2012-11-15 | 579745.0 |
| 2012-12-15 | 599502.0 |
| 2013-01-15 | 631685.0 |
| 2013-02-15 | 568388.0 |
| 2013-03-15 | 603910.0 |
| 2013-04-15 | 564827.0 |
| 2013-05-15 | 614808.0 |
| 2013-06-15 | 737150.0 |
| 2013-07-15 | 911124.0 |
| 2013-08-15 | 900530.0 |
| 2013-09-15 | 751482.0 |
| 2013-10-15 | 637038.0 |
| 2013-11-15 | 601019.0 |
| 2013-12-15 | 668792.0 |
| 2014-01-15 | 662881.0 |
| 2014-02-15 | 551109.0 |
| 2014-03-15 | 560808.0 |
| 2014-04-15 | 548899.0 |
| 2014-05-15 | 646929.0 |
| 2014-06-15 | 720750.0 |
| 2014-07-15 | 843303.0 |
| 2014-08-15 | 897806.0 |
| 2014-09-15 | 770947.0 |
| 2014-10-15 | 703390.0 |
| 2014-11-15 | 600392.0 |
| 2014-12-15 | 638769.0 |
| 2015-01-15 | 711324.0 |
| 2015-02-15 | 648343.0 |
| 2015-03-15 | 708731.0 |
| 2015-04-15 | 664276.0 |
| 2015-05-15 | 734486.0 |
| 2015-06-15 | 886475.0 |
| 2015-07-15 | 1045542.0 |
| 2015-08-15 | 1026590.0 |
| 2015-09-15 | 895044.0 |
| 2015-10-15 | 791541.0 |
| 2015-11-15 | 732413.0 |
| 2015-12-15 | 768606.0 |
| 2016-01-15 | 773954.0 |
| 2016-02-15 | 689800.0 |
| 2016-03-15 | 744765.0 |
| 2016-04-15 | 718893.0 |
| 2016-05-15 | 804431.0 |
| 2016-06-15 | 970308.0 |
| 2016-07-15 | 1139968.0 |
| 2016-08-15 | 1151236.0 |
| 2016-09-15 | 915286.0 |
| 2016-10-15 | 743796.0 |
| 2016-11-15 | 662046.0 |
| 2016-12-15 | 670787.0 |
| 2017-01-15 | 659623.0 |
| 2017-02-15 | 568781.0 |
| 2017-03-15 | 672176.0 |
| 2017-04-15 | 627049.0 |
| 2017-05-15 | 700059.0 |
| 2017-06-15 | 851035.0 |
| 2017-07-15 | 1081826.0 |
| 2017-08-15 | 1022019.0 |
| 2017-09-15 | 859260.0 |
| 2017-10-15 | 772543.0 |
| 2017-11-15 | 666156.0 |
| 2017-12-15 | 785029.0 |
| 2018-01-15 | 786001.0 |
| 2018-02-15 | 690022.0 |
| 2018-03-15 | 756528.0 |
| 2018-04-15 | 703919.0 |
| 2018-05-15 | 848085.0 |
| 2018-06-15 | 952554.0 |
| 2018-07-15 | 1223514.0 |
| 2018-08-15 | 1185530.0 |
| 2018-09-15 | 1029799.0 |
| 2018-10-15 | 887814.0 |
| 2018-11-15 | 762951.0 |
| 2018-12-15 | 762221.0 |
| 2019-01-15 | 848519.0 |
| 2019-02-15 | 779310.0 |
| 2019-03-15 | 813526.0 |
| 2019-04-15 | 739680.0 |
| 2019-05-15 | 836087.0 |
| 2019-06-15 | 990562.0 |
| 2019-07-15 | 1254667.0 |
| 2019-08-15 | 1277904.0 |
| 2019-09-15 | 1080775.0 |
| 2019-10-15 | 936668.0 |
| 2019-11-15 | 818868.0 |
| 2019-12-15 | 911529.0 |
| 2020-01-15 | 931322.0 |
| 2020-02-15 | 878768.0 |
| 2020-03-15 | 878908.0 |
| 2020-04-15 | 763925.0 |
| 2020-05-15 | 833954.0 |
| 2020-06-15 | 1045572.0 |
| 2020-07-15 | 1372103.0 |
| 2020-08-15 | 1279767.0 |
| 2020-09-15 | 1037749.0 |
| 2020-10-15 | 954009.0 |
| 2020-11-15 | 767235.0 |
| 2020-12-15 | 872676.0 |
| 2021-01-15 | 872591.0 |
| 2021-02-15 | 786907.0 |
| 2021-03-15 | 748064.0 |
| 2021-04-15 | 755545.0 |
| 2021-05-15 | 814652.0 |
| 2021-06-15 | 1084484.0 |
| 2021-07-15 | 1234684.0 |
| 2021-08-15 | 1259873.0 |
| 2021-09-15 | 994786.0 |
| 2021-10-15 | 943277.0 |
| Dep. Variable: | U.S. Natural Gas Deliveries to Electric Power Consumers | R-squared: | 0.815 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model: | OLS | Adj. R-squared: | 0.807 |
| Method: | Least Squares | F-statistic: | 101.2 |
| Date: | Mon, 24 Jan 2022 | Prob (F-statistic): | 1.96e-40 |
| Time: | 01:49:24 | Log-Likelihood: | -1537.9 |
| No. Observations: | 121 | AIC: | 3088. |
| Df Residuals: | 115 | BIC: | 3105. |
| Df Model: | 5 | ||
| Covariance Type: | nonrobust |
| coef | std err | t | P>|t| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| const | -1.017e+06 | 1.74e+05 | -5.852 | 0.000 | -1.36e+06 | -6.72e+05 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price | -2.183e+04 | 9836.048 | -2.219 | 0.028 | -4.13e+04 | -2345.718 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Imports | 1.9323 | 0.300 | 6.431 | 0.000 | 1.337 | 2.527 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Exports | -0.3365 | 0.176 | -1.911 | 0.059 | -0.685 | 0.012 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production | 0.4213 | 0.059 | 7.136 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.538 |
| U.S. Temperature | 8660.8030 | 595.070 | 14.554 | 0.000 | 7482.083 | 9839.523 |
| Omnibus: | 0.508 | Durbin-Watson: | 0.986 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prob(Omnibus): | 0.776 | Jarque-Bera (JB): | 0.647 |
| Skew: | 0.057 | Prob(JB): | 0.724 |
| Kurtosis: | 2.660 | Cond. No. | 5.82e+07 |
| Model: | MixedLM | Dependent Variable: | U.S. Natural Gas Deliveries to Electric Power Consumers |
| No. Observations: | 121 | Method: | ML |
| No. Groups: | 12 | Scale: | 2297149329.6217 |
| Min. group size: | 10 | Log-Likelihood: | -1498.8294 |
| Max. group size: | 11 | Converged: | No |
| Mean group size: | 10.1 |
| Coef. | Std.Err. | z | P>|z| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| const | -683904.826 | 147938.335 | -4.623 | 0.000 | -973858.635 | -393951.018 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price | -34844.045 | 9635.366 | -3.616 | 0.000 | -53729.016 | -15959.074 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Imports | 0.875 | 0.250 | 3.496 | 0.000 | 0.384 | 1.365 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Exports | -0.284 | 0.117 | -2.420 | 0.016 | -0.514 | -0.054 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production | 0.349 | 0.043 | 8.095 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.433 |
| U.S. Temperature | 11132.940 | 1317.944 | 8.447 | 0.000 | 8549.816 | 13716.063 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price Var | 696570758.468 | 14042.565 |
| Dep. Variable: | Coal Consumption | R-squared: | 0.847 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model: | OLS | Adj. R-squared: | 0.843 |
| Method: | Least Squares | F-statistic: | 245.2 |
| Date: | Mon, 24 Jan 2022 | Prob (F-statistic): | 2.78e-88 |
| Time: | 01:48:52 | Log-Likelihood: | -2346.0 |
| No. Observations: | 228 | AIC: | 4704. |
| Df Residuals: | 222 | BIC: | 4725. |
| Df Model: | 5 | ||
| Covariance Type: | nonrobust |
| coef | std err | t | P>|t| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| const | 1.336e+05 | 5336.719 | 25.027 | 0.000 | 1.23e+05 | 1.44e+05 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price | 2562.9028 | 444.631 | 5.764 | 0.000 | 1686.666 | 3439.140 |
| U.S. Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers | -459.6813 | 374.215 | -1.228 | 0.221 | -1197.149 | 277.786 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production | -0.0440 | 0.002 | -19.469 | 0.000 | -0.048 | -0.040 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Deliveries to Electric Power Consumers | 0.0538 | 0.006 | 9.263 | 0.000 | 0.042 | 0.065 |
| U.S. Temperature | -138.3401 | 65.272 | -2.119 | 0.035 | -266.971 | -9.709 |
| Omnibus: | 3.868 | Durbin-Watson: | 0.985 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prob(Omnibus): | 0.145 | Jarque-Bera (JB): | 3.819 |
| Skew: | -0.316 | Prob(JB): | 0.148 |
| Kurtosis: | 2.953 | Cond. No. | 2.52e+07 |
| Model: | MixedLM | Dependent Variable: | Coal Consumption |
| No. Observations: | 228 | Method: | ML |
| No. Groups: | 12 | Scale: | 17288474.2729 |
| Min. group size: | 19 | Log-Likelihood: | -2254.1125 |
| Max. group size: | 19 | Converged: | Yes |
| Mean group size: | 19.0 |
| Coef. | Std.Err. | z | P>|z| | [0.025 | 0.975] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| const | 146872.742 | 5748.828 | 25.548 | 0.000 | 135605.247 | 158140.238 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price | 2335.154 | 417.440 | 5.594 | 0.000 | 1516.987 | 3153.321 |
| U.S. Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers | -991.349 | 439.709 | -2.255 | 0.024 | -1853.164 | -129.535 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production | -0.029 | 0.002 | -16.522 | 0.000 | -0.033 | -0.026 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Deliveries to Electric Power Consumers | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.114 | 0.910 | -0.009 | 0.010 |
| U.S. Temperature | -202.484 | 92.098 | -2.199 | 0.028 | -382.992 | -21.975 |
| U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price Var | 1012089.374 | 139.791 | ||||
| U.S. Natural Gas Electric Power Price x U.S. Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers Cov | -1158821.562 | 141.595 | ||||
| U.S. Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers Var | 1428174.834 | 158.990 |
The model clearly cannot handle the extreme drop in temperature during february 2021, but apart from this does a good job in estimating the consumption for 2021.
In order for the coal consumption to have a positve year on growth for 2022, the price of natural gas, for the electric power sector, would need to increase by around 30 to 40 percent from the levels estimated by IEA. Furthermore, the increase would need to be well above 90 percent for the growth to be positive from 2021 to 2023.
| 0% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 10% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 20% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 30% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 40% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 50% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 60% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 70% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 80% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | 90% inc. from EIA's forecasted price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | ||||||||||
| 2002 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 | 1.066355e+06 |
| 2003 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 | 1.094861e+06 |
| 2004 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 | 1.107255e+06 |
| 2005 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 | 1.125978e+06 |
| 2006 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 | 1.112292e+06 |
| 2007 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 | 1.127998e+06 |
| 2008 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 | 1.120548e+06 |
| 2009 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 | 9.974776e+05 |
| 2010 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 | 1.048514e+06 |
| 2011 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 | 1.002948e+06 |
| 2012 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 | 8.891851e+05 |
| 2013 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 | 9.244418e+05 |
| 2014 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 | 9.177315e+05 |
| 2015 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 | 7.981147e+05 |
| 2016 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 | 7.310707e+05 |
| 2017 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 | 7.168557e+05 |
| 2018 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 | 6.881053e+05 |
| 2019 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 | 5.865434e+05 |
| 2020 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 | 4.766982e+05 |
| 2021 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 | 5.454749e+05 |
| 2022 | 5.010760e+05 | 5.126349e+05 | 5.241937e+05 | 5.357526e+05 | 5.473115e+05 | 5.588703e+05 | 5.704292e+05 | 5.819880e+05 | 5.935469e+05 | 6.051058e+05 |
| 2023 | 4.486327e+05 | 4.588219e+05 | 4.690111e+05 | 4.792003e+05 | 4.893895e+05 | 4.995787e+05 | 5.097679e+05 | 5.199572e+05 | 5.301464e+05 | 5.403356e+05 |